AGP Executive Report

Latvia Election Shock: Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ pro-Ukraine United List won a historic parliamentary victory, projected to take 42 of 100 seats with about 35% of the vote and turnout at 51.8%—the lowest in Latvia’s Saeima elections since independence. Coalition Math: Kulbergs says he’ll keep Latvia’s hard line toward Russia and continue backing Kyiv, but he still needs coalition partners to reach a majority. Security at the Center: The campaign was dominated by fears of Russian hybrid threats and the cost of living, with populist parties gaining support among Latvia’s Russian-speaking minority. Ukraine Frontline Update: Russia hit Kyiv again as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited; Ukraine and Germany also signed a €1.5bn deal focused on drones and energy protection. Culture Spotlight: The Astana AI Film Festival crowned Latvian filmmaker Nikolay Shestak with a $450,000 grand prize.

Latvia Election: Andris Kulbergs’ pro-Ukraine United List won a decisive victory in Latvia’s Saeima vote, taking about 35% of the ballot and 42 of 100 seats, setting up coalition talks to keep the country’s pro-European, pro-Ukrainian course after a campaign dominated by Russia fears and cost-of-living worries. Coalition Math: Populist Latvia First placed second (around 13%); Sovereign Power and the Progressives also cleared the threshold, while the outgoing coalition’s Union of Greens and Farmers fell short, meaning Kulbergs will likely reshuffle partners. Security Context: The vote comes as Latvia and its Baltic neighbours warn of Russian hybrid pressure, with the wider region watching for any escalation tied to the Ukraine war. EU Budget Push: Seventeen EU leaders, including Latvia, urged Ireland’s EU presidency to protect farm and cohesion funding from cuts in the next long-term budget. Riga Tech & Finance: UN:BLOCK Fintech will bring 600+ people to Riga on 15 October, with sessions on MiCA licensing, stablecoins, payments and regulatory access.

Latvia Election Results: Exit polls released after Saturday voting show Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ centrist, pro-Ukraine United List leading strongly with 35.6% and set to become the biggest force in the new 100-seat Saeima, while Latvia First is projected at 11.3%, Progressives at 11.1%, and Sovereign Power/Young Latvians at 10.8%; early figures also suggest coalition partners National Alliance (8.7%) and New Unity (6.7%) clear the 5% threshold, but the final coalition shape still depends on the official count. Low Turnout: Preliminary turnout is reported at 50.81%, the lowest since independence, adding to concerns about political engagement. Security & Russia Shadow: The campaign was dominated by fears of Russian hybrid threats and the cost of living, with Kulbergs’ team emphasizing Latvia’s pro-European and pro-Ukraine course. EU Budget Fight: Separately, 17 EU leaders including Latvia urged the Irish EU presidency to protect farm and cohesion funding in the next budget, warning cuts would weaken the bloc.

Latvia Election: Latvians voted today to elect the 15th Saeima (100 seats) as Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs seeks a full term, with security fears, Russia’s war in Ukraine, drone incidents and the cost of living dominating the campaign; polling ran 08:00–20:00 and turnout was about 25% by midday, with preliminary results expected overnight. NATO Air Security: Lithuania temporarily closed Vilnius airport airspace and scrambled NATO fighters after an unidentified object entered from Belarus, while residents were urged to be ready to shelter—an echo of similar Baltic airspace alerts. EU Budget Fight: Seventeen EU leaders, including Latvia’s, urged EU negotiators to protect Cohesion Policy and the CAP from proposed cuts in the 2028–2034 budget talks, warning reductions would weaken Europe’s competitiveness and food security. Local Economy & Investment: Latvia’s investment agency (LIAA) reported it has reached nearly 90% of its 2026 investment attraction target in nine months, spanning sectors from defence and dual-use tech to fintech and logistics. Riga Culture: A new exhibition, “Always the Sun,” opens in Riga Contemporary Art Space, bringing 27 Greek artists to the Baltic through themes of light, climate and cultural legacy.

Latvia Election Watch: Latvia’s State Police chief Armands Ruks says the Saeima vote is running smoothly but police are on heightened readiness for possible provocations, including threatening emails; voters can still deposit ballots for safekeeping today, with election day tomorrow and no major incidents reported so far. Eurozone Inflation: Eurostat reports eurozone inflation jumped to 3.8% in September, the highest in three years, driven mainly by energy prices; Latvia’s annual rate is 2.9%, the lowest among the Baltic states. Rail Baltica Costs: Latvia’s government is trying to cut Rail Baltica costs after a reported 20 million euro cap per kilometre, as the project remains a political flashpoint. Defense & Security: NATO’s new air defense framework included a US Air Force B-1B bomber mission over Lithuania and Latvia, integrating multiple NATO fighter types and ground assets. Energy Transition in Latvia: NorSAF and Nova Pangaea Technologies plan an ethanol-to-SAF supply chain in Latvia using local wood waste, aiming to reduce reliance on imported feedstocks. Tech & Business: The number of AI companies in the Baltics rose from 184 to 282 in a year, with Latvia at 95 firms, while EU funding for private AI projects still lags.

Latvia’s Russian-language media limits: The Saeima approved amendments restricting when Latvia’s public broadcasters can produce content in Russian—allowed only in emergencies, during a state of exception, or to counter disinformation threatening democracy or the state (55 MPs in favor, 24 against). The changes follow a Constitutional Court ruling that Russian is “self-sufficient,” and the new rules are expected to take effect on Jan. 1, 2027. Election focus: With Latvia voting Oct. 3, coverage highlights that voters are weighing Russia’s threat alongside cost of living and healthcare, while polls show Andris Kulbergs’ United List leading. Crypto regulation: Latvijas Banka granted UK-backed Noah LV SIA a double MiCA licence for crypto services and payments, bringing Latvia’s total to 12 licensed firms. EU-Russia pressure: Estonia moved to ban transit of Russian and Belarusian grain, and Latvia is described as tightening controls too. Regional security backdrop: NATO and EU discussions keep spotlighting hybrid threats and air-defense readiness in the Baltics.

Election Watch: A Reuters SKDS poll says pro-Ukraine PM Andris Kulbergs’ “United List” is leading ahead of Latvia’s Saeima vote, with 14.4% support, but no clear majority—coalition talks look tough. Security Crackdown: Latvia detained two people suspected of spying for Russia’s GRU, including aerial reconnaissance of the Ādaži military base using a private aircraft. Russian Grain Pressure: Estonia approved a ban on transit of Russian and Belarusian grain through its territory, and Latvia is already tightening inspections to stop looted grain from occupied Ukraine entering its market. Defense & Tech: Latvia expects IRIS-T air defences to become operational in the first half of next year, while Anduril and Latvian Origin Robotics announced a drone-interceptor integration with AI command-and-control. Public Media Rule Change: From Jan 1, Russian-language content on Latvia’s public media will be allowed only in rare cases, mainly for emergencies or to counter disinformation. Culture: The 13th Riga International Film Festival runs 15–25 October with nearly 100 films and a Baltic-focused industry forum.

Latvia–NATO Security: President Edgars Rinkēvičs said Latvia has no legal barrier to deploying nuclear weapons if NATO makes a collective decision, while also stressing there’s currently no evidence of a direct Russian invasion of any NATO member state. Regional Security & Sabotage: Estonia blamed Russia for an arson attack at Milrem Robotics, which supplies Ukraine with unmanned ground vehicles, and Latvia’s president urged the public to report suspicious activity tied to possible provocations. Latvia’s Foreign Policy Coordination: Latvia’s International Image Policy Coordination Council resumed work after a break, aiming for a unified national image strategy for 2027–2031 and preparations for Latvia’s EU Council Presidency in 2028. Defense Procurement: Latvia signed a trilateral deal to buy 155 mm “Morana” artillery systems, with gradual localization planned in Latvia. Economy & Business: Signet Bank provided EUR 1.3 million to EasyCars to expand its car-rental fleet at Riga and Tallinn airports. EU Health Push: The EU launched its first Screening Week, urging people to check blood pressure, cholesterol and blood sugar to prevent cardiovascular disease. Sports: Latvia drew Cyprus 0-0 in the UEFA Nations League.

Latvia Election Watch: A Reuters poll says Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ United List is set to win the biggest share of seats in Latvia’s Oct. 3 election, but likely won’t get a majority, with coalition-building and security plus cost-of-living issues driving voter mood. Russian Threat Assessment: President Edgars Rinkēvičs said Latvia currently has no evidence Russia plans a direct invasion of any NATO member, while warning that sabotage and cyberattacks remain a real risk and urging people to report suspicious activity. Security & Sabotage: Estonia blamed Russian security services for an arson attack on Milrem Robotics, which supplies Ukraine with the TheMIS unmanned ground vehicle; Latvia’s SAB chief also warned civilian casualties can’t be ruled out as Russia escalates. Court Ruling on Debt Relief: Latvia’s Constitutional Court struck down rules that let people be released from debt without assessing their full financial situation, protecting creditors’ rights. Local Life & Economy: Bank of Latvia data shows cashless payments hit a record 81% of transactions; LIAA received a record 313 applications for its autumn business incubator intake. Riga Business: Signet Bank provided €1.3m financing to EasyCars to expand its car rental fleet at Riga and Tallinn airports. Crime: Two youths were arrested in Daugavpils after stealing firearms from a shooting range; the weapons were recovered.

Latvian Elections & Identity: Ahead of Latvia’s Oct. 3 parliamentary vote, Russian-speakers in Latgale say they reject “Moscow help,” stressing they want to solve problems themselves. Defense & Security: Latvia is set to buy U.S. Barracuda long-range cruise missiles, while NATO allies keep backing the region after Estonia accused Russia of ordering an arson sabotage at Milrem Robotics in Tallinn. Regional Tensions: Russia escalated nuclear threats toward the UK and NATO over Kaliningrad, warning any blockade or strike could trigger nuclear retaliation. Trade & Industry: A Latvian business mission to the U.S. ended with deals in defense tech and genomics, as Latvia-U.S. trade hit €1.63bn in 2025. Economy & Transport: Grain transit through Latvia surged in September, with Russia and Belarus shipping far more via Latvian routes as authorities tighten checks for stolen Ukrainian grain. Consumer Safety: Bite Latvia will stop selling prepaid SIMs from Oct. 1 to curb anonymous phone-fraud risks.

Estonia-Russia Tensions: Estonia says a mid-August arson attack on Milrem Robotics in Tallinn was sabotage ordered by Russian special services, after a six-week probe; Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna says Russia’s chargé d’affaires will be summoned and suspects were arrested. Baltic Security & Ukraine Support: NATO and EU leaders rallied behind Estonia and Ukraine, while Russia rejected the claims and warned the West with nuclear rhetoric tied to Kaliningrad. Latvia-EU Practical Checks: Latvia is stepping up verification of grain origin after surging transit from Russia and Belarus, with samples sent for testing and Baltic ministers coordinating checks to stop stolen Ukrainian grain entering EU markets. Riga Business: The Nordic Investment Bank signed a long-term lease at Origo One, reinforcing Riga’s Central Business District as a regional finance hub. Latvia Politics: Early voting for Latvia’s 15th Saeima election shows higher-than-expected turnout, with around 26,000 votes cast by Monday.

UEFA Nations League (Latvia): Latvia drew Cyprus 0-0 in Riga on Monday, keeping their campaign alive after an earlier setback. Baltic security & sanctions: Lithuania has started national sanctions against Russian oligarchs Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman, with Latvia and Estonia expected to follow. Defense procurement: Latvia plans to buy Anduril’s Barracuda jet-powered cruise missiles for long-range strike capability, while also working with Origin Robotics on counter-drone testing. NATO readiness talk: Reports say Lithuania and Poland are building joint evacuation plans for a possible Russian attack, including border measures around the Suwałki Gap. Local business & infrastructure: Freeport of Riga recorded a record number of cruise passengers this season, and Riga is set to start work on an airport terminal expansion project. Health & daily life: Murky water may affect parts of Riga this week. Sports (wider): France beat Belgium 1-0 with a late Michael Olise goal, while Italy bounced back to thrash Turkey 4-1.

Riga Tourism Boost: The Freeport of Riga says it has already handled a record 150,000 cruise passengers this season, with Hamburg, MSC Magnifica and AIDAmar among the latest arrivals; the port expects total numbers to be about 30% higher than last year. Logistics Investment: Venipak is pouring over €2.5 million into Baltic infrastructure and has expanded its most-used parcel locker compartments in Latvia by around 15% to cope with growing volumes. Security & Defence: Latvia is building a Ukraine-inspired automated anti-drone “wall” along its eastern border, aiming to detect and neutralize drones first, with fighter jets as a backup. Court Case: Riga City Court sentenced a nurse at BKUS to two and a half years in prison after a medication mix-up led to a child’s death, with a four-year ban from practising medicine. EU Energy Rules: The European Commission has opened infringement cases against 18 EU states, including Latvia, over incomplete implementation of energy-sharing and consumer rules. Elections Watch: Latvia’s election campaign is in the final stretch, with the security service saying it is monitoring for disinformation and other attempts to influence the Saeima vote.

Border Security Sabotage: Latvia’s State Border Guard says cables, cabinets and video-surveillance gear along the Russia/Belarus border are being deliberately damaged to slow an automated border control rollout, with work already under way on multiple border sections. EU Sanctions Bargaining: EU capitals are extending Russia sanctions while trading away names from the Kremlin blacklist, a move Latvia opposed, as diplomats warn sanctions are increasingly used for unrelated political concessions. Baltic Evacuation Planning: Lithuania and Poland are drafting cross-border evacuation procedures for residents of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, with drills testing warning, registration and transport as officials flag the Suwałki Gap as a key risk area. Latvia Firearms Curbs: Latvia bars dual Russian/Belarusian citizens from getting firearms permits, with a transition period for existing holders until Dec 1, 2026. Defense Procurement: President Edgars Rinkēvičs says Latvia is moving to buy Anduril’s Barracuda long-range cruise missiles, aiming to add a new strike capability. NATO Hybrid Threat: European governments warn Russia’s sabotage and cyber pressure is escalating, and Latvia’s foreign minister calls it “actual attacks,” not just grey-zone tactics.

Baltic War Readiness: Latvia and partners are tightening crisis planning as European intelligence warns Russia’s hybrid pressure is turning into direct attacks on NATO’s eastern flank, with officials pointing to sabotage and disruption tactics already underway. Civil Defence & Evacuation: Lithuania and Poland are drafting cross-border evacuation procedures for residents of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, with preparations tied to nationwide drills and concerns about bottlenecks like the Suwałki Gap. Border Security Sabotage: Latvia confirms deliberate damage to its new “smart border” surveillance build—cut cables, sabotaged cabinets and hit video equipment—aimed at delaying activation. Latvia’s Defence Moves: Latvia is moving to buy Anduril’s Barracuda long-range cruise missiles after President Rinkēvičs’ US visit, while defence leaders stress NATO must learn to disperse weapons production before war. Local Policy: Latvia bans dual Russian/Belarusian citizens from getting firearms permits, with transitional rules for existing owners. Business & Trade: DHL eCommerce eyes more Eastern Europe acquisitions, including a planned move involving Venipak in the Baltics. Sports: Latvia begins Nations League action after a loss to Armenia, hosting Cyprus for first points.

NATO Training Incident in Latvia: Four Italian soldiers were injured in a friendly-fire accident during live-fire drills at Ādaži, with an investigation launched into how one vehicle’s weapon struck another; none of the injuries were reported as life-threatening. Russian-Linked Security Concerns: Latvia opened a criminal probe after road signs pointing to Moscow and Ostrov were painted over, and separate reporting highlights how migrants dig tunnels from Belarus into Latvia to cross the border. Latvia in the Nations League: Armenia beat Latvia 2-0 in the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League opener, leaving Latvia bottom of League C Group 2 ahead of Monday’s home game vs Cyprus. Local Business & Economy: “Lidl Latvija” reported 2025 turnover of €495.6m (+7.5%) and said its investment phase continues, including new stores and digital upgrades. Tech & Research Push: Latvia’s delegation is in California to build genomics partnerships and commercialise research, while a Riga-based tech firm expands Swift connectivity services across the Baltics. Cyber Awareness: Latvia’s Cert.lv says phishing simulations in 2025 saw 31.5% of emails opened, urging regular staff training.